Good Stuff - Bad Stuff

Since beginning this blog, I have discovered an interesting message board http://www.gamblersglen.com/ . I highly recommend it for anyone interested in systems play. I have gone back and read many of the archive entries and I find the people who post there to be serious about wanting to learn ways to win money. Some of the comments reveal smart individuals who are open minded while others do not. I have also discovered through this message board some useful links to other sites where systems are being discussed, explained, supported, debunked, sold, etc..

I thought I'd try to bring together some of this information here. I hope to include in this thread ideas that I find interesting as well as absurd. My plan is to add information within this post, so please check back.

Saturday, August 30th, 2008 - I recommend these sites for the phenomenon that they are. Regardless of their value in helping you as a gambler, I think you will find the information interesting.
Gambler's Glen Message Board: http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master - Here you'll find a lively discussion amongst people who (like me) want to be better gamblers and who (I think) believe that there are methods to improve your game.
Donny Millionaire: http://www.donnymillionaire.com/ - A slick systems seller. Most of the folks on Gambler's Glen are convinced that this guy is a scammer. Some of the members who support him are accused by the others to be merely shills. (I'll have to admit that some of his supporters do appear to be merely shills and not gamblers who have benefitted from systems that they purchased from Donny.) I'd also like to point out that some of the people who call Donny a scammer seem to be saying that anyone who sells a system is a scammer because systems don't work. My thoughts are that anyone who makes claims about their system that are not true is running a scam.
Mr. Oops: http://www.xerxx.se/oops/index.html - This well presented site for roulette players with an emphasis on statistics and probabilities. There is some great information here. Those who will to take the time to go through it all will come away with an appreciation for his efforts.

The Wizard of Odds: http://wizardofodds.com/ - This guy has ALL the answers! Especially if the questions is one that can be answered mathematically. A HUGE amount of free information for anyone who is looking at gambling from a mathematical angle.

John Solitude: http://www.john-solitude.be/download.html - This site has a useful guide called "Roulette Fact or Fiction." The free 125 page guide answers common questions about systems sellers and scammers. The introduction to probabilities and statistice and their application to gaming is easy to follow (you can skim the math parts) and the conclusion is that there are NO guranteed systems and you shold avoid all seller's who are not straight forward about the level of risk associated with the system. You can download the guide by clicking the link above. John Solitude also accepts donations to keep the site going.

"Statistical Propensity" and "Diminishing Probability"

Are we simply guessing that a specific random event will occur? If so, are we nothing more than victims (or benefactors) of the fickle finger of lady luck?

I believe that some betting opportunities are "better" than others. In Roulette, betting that a series of 7 black decisions in a row will end within the next 5 decisions seems to be a "good" bet. It seems to me that it is a "better" wager than to bet that a series of 2 black decisions in a row will end within the next 5 decisions. Betting that 7 won't continue to 12 "seems like" a "better" wagering opportunity than betting that 2 won;t go to 7 BUT the mathematicians will tell us otherwise, the odds are exactly the same.

So why does it feel better? I think it feels better because we find ourselves encountering runs of 7 much more often than runs of 12. (But we also find ourselves encountering runs of 2 much much more often than runs of 7). Perhaps it is because of what Barstow calls the Law of Diminishing Probability and/or what R. D. Ellison calls the Law of Statistical Propensity. Although spins of the wheel and dice decisions are random events not related to previous decisions, it appears that over time the decisions tend to conform to or at least gravitate toward their mathematically expectations.

Ellison says:

"Taking all 38 numbers into consideration, the least number of times any number showed up was 16, and the most number of times was 50. This is a wider range, which accounts for the greater possibility of unconventional trends in a larger sampling, but not one of the 38 numbers tried to escape from the corral. Meaning, each one was compelled to show up a minimum number of times, but not too many times."

From: "American Roulette Is Now Mathematically Beatable" - by R.D. Ellison
See: http://www.thegamblersedge.com/propensity.htm

I believe that perhaps we can discover ideal betting opportunities. These would be bets that we would win more often than we'd lose AND (here is the tricky part) when we lose it is less than our winnings for that session or period of time. For example: suppose we should win this bet 7 out of ten times and with each win we'd gain one unit and with each loss we'd lose 2 units. For every 10 decisions, we should average a net of 3 units.

Eillison is promoting his 3Q/A Roulette system (which I have not tried) and arguing Statistical Propensity in support of it. I'm not sure (because I have not done the math) but if Ellsion is saying that the mathematical expectation is such that his wagering plan wins more often than it loses and wins more money than it loses, then it passes my test (and I imagine everyone else's) for a "good" bet.

BACCARAT - Barstow, Zumma and Excel

In Frank Barstow's excellent treatise on gambling systems, "Beat the Casino" (1979 Carlyle) the author makes some pretty strong claims about expected success using his pet systems. He claims on page 216, for example, that his "Barstow System" "can" average 12 units per hour profit. His conclusions are the result of a combination of reasoning, simulated trials and "real" Casino play.

It strikes me that with today's technology and information we can "test" Barstows claims in a way that he could not have easily accomplished.

Erick St. Germain's "72 Days at the Baccarat Table" (1995 Zumma) lists the outcomes of each decision in 600 "real casino" Baccarat shoes (about 40,000 decisions). Using a simple Excel spreadsheet, I have been able to test some of the the Zumma shoes against several systems in Barstow's book. Although I do not expect to discover the keys to the kingdom, I firmly believe that this time-consuming task will help illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of certain systems and be helpful in identifying trends within the shoes.

I'm curious if any of YOU have tried a similar approach and might be willing to share the results or are you aware of where this information may be obtained. Also, would you be interested in testing some of these 600 shoes yourself?

I plan on making some of my research available on this blog to give you all a better idea of what I'm talking about.

In the meantime "happy number crunching."

Labouchere & Baccarat

Has anyone had any good experience with the Labouchere in Baccarat? Or the reverse Labouchere? It seems like such a solid choice of system because in most shoes neither side will perform at less than 40%. If your side performs at 40% or better, you should be able to complete several labouchere series in 60 or so decisions. I've read about "splitting lines" and "busting out" lines, does anyone have good advice regarding these mitigation tactics?

Books

Here are a few books on Gambling that I highly recommend:

"Beat the Casino" by Frank Barstow - 1979 Carlyle and Associates - Although difficult to find, this is the Bible for system players and system designers. Barstow treats this subject with a level of analysis far greater than any others I have come across. More than a simple list of systems, Barstow gets into the why and how of systems.

"The Most Powerful Blackjack Manual" by Jay Moore - 2004 Lyle Stuart, Kennsington - This is a terrific book for anyone who wants to understand how to play (and beat) the game without counting cards. Nobody has set the record straight on what to expect from the game like Moore. His experience as a Math instructor and as a player comes through in a well-written text. Although I am not completely sold on his "delayed and up" method, his data and presentation are excellent.

"Bringing Down the House" by Ben Mezrich - 2002 Free Press - The true story behind the popular motion picture "21". This tale of card counting should be an inspiration to all of us who seek to remove some small portion of the casinos' fortune. A fun read.

Please feel free to share any recommendations of books or websites that you have found to be helpful or enjoyable. I would also welcome any "not recommended" books or websites.

Welcome!!

Welcome to the Systems Forum Blog! I created this blog to encourage the intelligent discussion of gambling systems for use at table games in real casinos.

I am not interested in on-line gambling, nor am I interested in Poker, however all comments are welcome.

Suggested Topics include: recommended books, mathematical probabilities, scams to avoid, preferred casinos, things that do not work, Vegas deals, etc..

My most recent efforts have been directed at recognizing and exploiting trends in Baccarat shoes.

If you have any interest in Gambling Systems, please leave a comment or suggestion for discussion.

Thanks!