3D Labouchere

(I Orginally Posted this idea at Gamblers Glen)

My latest novel idea is a 3D labouchere. The appeal here is only for those who buy in to my notion that the Labouchere is best seen as a score card. Here's the basic 3D Labouchere:

1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1

First, get yourself a nice piece of graph paper with a printed grid of squares covering the sheet. Draw the above diagram in the middle of your paper (like tic-tac-toe), your goal is 9 units. Your first bet is 2. Here's the beautfiul part: If you lose, you can add the "2" to the left or right or top or bottom of any line. This means that you could lose the "2" bet 12 times in a row before your diagram forces you to bet "4" (beacause at that point you would have added a "2" to both ends of every line.

Remember, this is a only score card, at any time during your session, you can add up the numbers on the paper and subtract 9 and that's how far down you are. If some of your lines add up to 6 and others add up to 3, you can pick which bet you "feel" best about at that time, and you can add your losses wherever you want. I deally I would try to keep some sort of balance.

If I played this way for very long and did not reach my gaol of 9, I would probably look for a point where the total on the page was less than 9 and simply stop with whatever gain I had.I have not tried this method of scorekeeping in a real casino nor have I worked with my software or zumma shoes.

My interest in this approach is only to find a way to keep multiple lines going on one page in a coherent (and less confusing) manner.

"Statistical Propensity" and "Diminishing Probability"

Are we simply guessing that a specific random event will occur? If so, are we nothing more than victims (or benefactors) of the fickle finger of lady luck?

I believe that some betting opportunities are "better" than others. In Roulette, betting that a series of 7 black decisions in a row will end within the next 5 decisions seems to be a "good" bet. It seems to me that it is a "better" wager than to bet that a series of 2 black decisions in a row will end within the next 5 decisions. Betting that 7 won't continue to 12 "seems like" a "better" wagering opportunity than betting that 2 won;t go to 7 BUT the mathematicians will tell us otherwise, the odds are exactly the same.

So why does it feel better? I think it feels better because we find ourselves encountering runs of 7 much more often than runs of 12. (But we also find ourselves encountering runs of 2 much much more often than runs of 7). Perhaps it is because of what Barstow calls the Law of Diminishing Probability and/or what R. D. Ellison calls the Law of Statistical Propensity. Although spins of the wheel and dice decisions are random events not related to previous decisions, it appears that over time the decisions tend to conform to or at least gravitate toward their mathematically expectations.

Ellison says:

"Taking all 38 numbers into consideration, the least number of times any number showed up was 16, and the most number of times was 50. This is a wider range, which accounts for the greater possibility of unconventional trends in a larger sampling, but not one of the 38 numbers tried to escape from the corral. Meaning, each one was compelled to show up a minimum number of times, but not too many times."

From: "American Roulette Is Now Mathematically Beatable" - by R.D. Ellison
See: http://www.thegamblersedge.com/propensity.htm

I believe that perhaps we can discover ideal betting opportunities. These would be bets that we would win more often than we'd lose AND (here is the tricky part) when we lose it is less than our winnings for that session or period of time. For example: suppose we should win this bet 7 out of ten times and with each win we'd gain one unit and with each loss we'd lose 2 units. For every 10 decisions, we should average a net of 3 units.

Eillison is promoting his 3Q/A Roulette system (which I have not tried) and arguing Statistical Propensity in support of it. I'm not sure (because I have not done the math) but if Ellsion is saying that the mathematical expectation is such that his wagering plan wins more often than it loses and wins more money than it loses, then it passes my test (and I imagine everyone else's) for a "good" bet.

Labouchere & Baccarat

Has anyone had any good experience with the Labouchere in Baccarat? Or the reverse Labouchere? It seems like such a solid choice of system because in most shoes neither side will perform at less than 40%. If your side performs at 40% or better, you should be able to complete several labouchere series in 60 or so decisions. I've read about "splitting lines" and "busting out" lines, does anyone have good advice regarding these mitigation tactics?

Books

Here are a few books on Gambling that I highly recommend:

"Beat the Casino" by Frank Barstow - 1979 Carlyle and Associates - Although difficult to find, this is the Bible for system players and system designers. Barstow treats this subject with a level of analysis far greater than any others I have come across. More than a simple list of systems, Barstow gets into the why and how of systems.

"The Most Powerful Blackjack Manual" by Jay Moore - 2004 Lyle Stuart, Kennsington - This is a terrific book for anyone who wants to understand how to play (and beat) the game without counting cards. Nobody has set the record straight on what to expect from the game like Moore. His experience as a Math instructor and as a player comes through in a well-written text. Although I am not completely sold on his "delayed and up" method, his data and presentation are excellent.

"Bringing Down the House" by Ben Mezrich - 2002 Free Press - The true story behind the popular motion picture "21". This tale of card counting should be an inspiration to all of us who seek to remove some small portion of the casinos' fortune. A fun read.

Please feel free to share any recommendations of books or websites that you have found to be helpful or enjoyable. I would also welcome any "not recommended" books or websites.

Welcome!!

Welcome to the Systems Forum Blog! I created this blog to encourage the intelligent discussion of gambling systems for use at table games in real casinos.

I am not interested in on-line gambling, nor am I interested in Poker, however all comments are welcome.

Suggested Topics include: recommended books, mathematical probabilities, scams to avoid, preferred casinos, things that do not work, Vegas deals, etc..

My most recent efforts have been directed at recognizing and exploiting trends in Baccarat shoes.

If you have any interest in Gambling Systems, please leave a comment or suggestion for discussion.

Thanks!