(I Originally Posted This to the Meassage Board at Gambler's Glen)
I am fascinated with the recent discussion here about a bet selection method that wins more than 50% of the time. While I’ll be quick to agree that we could all make a lot of money with such a sure-fire method, I would be happy with “much less”.
I would be delighted to be able to guess (with certainty) the correct outcome of any one of the next four decisions. I would be happy with 25%. Surely, you would all agree that if we could be guaranteed to get one single decision correct out of the next four, we would all be rich in no time.
The reality of Baccarat is that the Casino is “giving” us about half of the decisions. These are gifts. They are enticing enough to get us to keep giving them the rest of the decisions. If you don’t believe this, simply look at any series of shoes (real or computer generated) and see how you would have done flat betting “player” all the way through.The game gives us almost half. The problem (of course) is that we never know exactly when we are going to get our half.
I have long given up on the feeling of despair after losing 65% of the decisions in a session (or in a shoe). The only despair I feel is when I have more money on the table when I lose and less on the table when I win.
I love the Labouchere. You can too!
The key to embracing the Labouchere is understanding what it is and what it is not. The Labouchere is NOT a system for winning. The Labouchere IS a method of keeping score. It is merely a method of knowing where you currently stand against the house.The Labouchere works for Baccarat players who don’t mind increasing their bets in an attempt to recover recent losses.We all know that while employing the martingale (which I rarely do beyond 3 steps), the question is “How much do I need to bet right now to make up for those last few losses and come out ahead?” And the answer is “Double you last bet!”When using the Labouchere, the question is more often something like this: “How much do I need to bet over the next six or seven decisions so that that IF I were to win two or three of those decisions, I can recover most of my losses or perhaps come out ahead?” And the simple answer is: “Look at your line and add up the first and last numbers.”
Now, keep in mind what I said earlier, with Baccarat, the house is giving us about half of the decisions. SO, most of the time I feel good about guessing correctly two or three of the next 6 or 7 decisions. (I am NOT saying that most of the time I am successful in guessing correctly 2 or 3 of the next 6 or seven decisions ONLY that I usually feel good about my chances of doing so!) I know that if I can guess “good enough” to get close to the “gift” that the casino offers me (about 50% win rate on decisions) then I WILL eventually come out ahead. Now, by “eventually” I do not mean one day down the road. I mean today, this shoe or the next.
It was recently expressed in a thread on this message board the uncomfortable feeling of carrying a long Labouchere line over into the next shoe. I believe that all discomfort can be removed with good discipline and some pre-established stopping points.
Consider this hypothectical: Suppose your initial line is 1,1,1,1,1. You need to work with this line and discover your confort zone. You need to decide at what point you will abandon this line and start over with a fresh line. It makes no difference if you are at the beginning of a shoe or at near the end. Everyone need s a point to say “no more”. BUT here’s the key: When you abandon a line, you are not “writing off a loss.” You are merely reducing (or limiting) the level of aggressiveness that you are willing to employ to recover those losses. Your comfort zone might be that you do not want to place a single wager more than 20 units. If so, you will find yourself getting to the point in your line where the sum of the first and last numbers equals 20 or more and that is when you start over. NOW, if on your fresh line (1,1,1,1,1 again), you are able to reach your coup, go back and reduce some of the numbers in your abandoned line by five. Suppose you abandoned your line because your numbers were 3,4,6,11,17 (you dug yourself a nice little hole) and your next bet is above your comfort level. You begin a fresh line (your next hand may be immediately thereafter, or after a dinner break, or in the next shoe or the next trip to the table, it does not matter) and if you are successful, you now have 5 units to remove from your abandoned line. I might reduce the two largest numbers, 11 and 17 to 10 and 13. At this point there isn’t much sense in going back to the abandoned line because you could quickly get back into the “uncomfortable” zone. Start another fresh line and when (if) you reach your coup again reduce the abandoned line. Eventually (be patient) you will return to your abandoned line and cancel it out. Only then will you be back in the black.
Remember this: The Labouchere is nothing more than a score card telling you where you presently stand against the house with the added feature of making suggestions as to how much you should bet over the next few decisions if your goal is to recover your losses soon. Once you are comfortable using the Labouchere, it should not bother you to carry a line forward into another shoe or even to have multiple abandoned lines. We all know that there will be good times and bad times and your scorecard tells you how bad the bad times are and what you need to do to overcome them.For me, it is a wonderful feeling to end a shoe having only guessed correctly on 45% of the decisions but to be up 15 units because you cancelled your Labouchere three times!! And all you have to do achieve this is to play a shoe that is somewhat evenly distributed. My experience tells me that the “somewhat evenly distributed shoe” is always right around the corner.
I am fascinated with the recent discussion here about a bet selection method that wins more than 50% of the time. While I’ll be quick to agree that we could all make a lot of money with such a sure-fire method, I would be happy with “much less”.
I would be delighted to be able to guess (with certainty) the correct outcome of any one of the next four decisions. I would be happy with 25%. Surely, you would all agree that if we could be guaranteed to get one single decision correct out of the next four, we would all be rich in no time.
The reality of Baccarat is that the Casino is “giving” us about half of the decisions. These are gifts. They are enticing enough to get us to keep giving them the rest of the decisions. If you don’t believe this, simply look at any series of shoes (real or computer generated) and see how you would have done flat betting “player” all the way through.The game gives us almost half. The problem (of course) is that we never know exactly when we are going to get our half.
I have long given up on the feeling of despair after losing 65% of the decisions in a session (or in a shoe). The only despair I feel is when I have more money on the table when I lose and less on the table when I win.
I love the Labouchere. You can too!
The key to embracing the Labouchere is understanding what it is and what it is not. The Labouchere is NOT a system for winning. The Labouchere IS a method of keeping score. It is merely a method of knowing where you currently stand against the house.The Labouchere works for Baccarat players who don’t mind increasing their bets in an attempt to recover recent losses.We all know that while employing the martingale (which I rarely do beyond 3 steps), the question is “How much do I need to bet right now to make up for those last few losses and come out ahead?” And the answer is “Double you last bet!”When using the Labouchere, the question is more often something like this: “How much do I need to bet over the next six or seven decisions so that that IF I were to win two or three of those decisions, I can recover most of my losses or perhaps come out ahead?” And the simple answer is: “Look at your line and add up the first and last numbers.”
Now, keep in mind what I said earlier, with Baccarat, the house is giving us about half of the decisions. SO, most of the time I feel good about guessing correctly two or three of the next 6 or 7 decisions. (I am NOT saying that most of the time I am successful in guessing correctly 2 or 3 of the next 6 or seven decisions ONLY that I usually feel good about my chances of doing so!) I know that if I can guess “good enough” to get close to the “gift” that the casino offers me (about 50% win rate on decisions) then I WILL eventually come out ahead. Now, by “eventually” I do not mean one day down the road. I mean today, this shoe or the next.
It was recently expressed in a thread on this message board the uncomfortable feeling of carrying a long Labouchere line over into the next shoe. I believe that all discomfort can be removed with good discipline and some pre-established stopping points.
Consider this hypothectical: Suppose your initial line is 1,1,1,1,1. You need to work with this line and discover your confort zone. You need to decide at what point you will abandon this line and start over with a fresh line. It makes no difference if you are at the beginning of a shoe or at near the end. Everyone need s a point to say “no more”. BUT here’s the key: When you abandon a line, you are not “writing off a loss.” You are merely reducing (or limiting) the level of aggressiveness that you are willing to employ to recover those losses. Your comfort zone might be that you do not want to place a single wager more than 20 units. If so, you will find yourself getting to the point in your line where the sum of the first and last numbers equals 20 or more and that is when you start over. NOW, if on your fresh line (1,1,1,1,1 again), you are able to reach your coup, go back and reduce some of the numbers in your abandoned line by five. Suppose you abandoned your line because your numbers were 3,4,6,11,17 (you dug yourself a nice little hole) and your next bet is above your comfort level. You begin a fresh line (your next hand may be immediately thereafter, or after a dinner break, or in the next shoe or the next trip to the table, it does not matter) and if you are successful, you now have 5 units to remove from your abandoned line. I might reduce the two largest numbers, 11 and 17 to 10 and 13. At this point there isn’t much sense in going back to the abandoned line because you could quickly get back into the “uncomfortable” zone. Start another fresh line and when (if) you reach your coup again reduce the abandoned line. Eventually (be patient) you will return to your abandoned line and cancel it out. Only then will you be back in the black.
Remember this: The Labouchere is nothing more than a score card telling you where you presently stand against the house with the added feature of making suggestions as to how much you should bet over the next few decisions if your goal is to recover your losses soon. Once you are comfortable using the Labouchere, it should not bother you to carry a line forward into another shoe or even to have multiple abandoned lines. We all know that there will be good times and bad times and your scorecard tells you how bad the bad times are and what you need to do to overcome them.For me, it is a wonderful feeling to end a shoe having only guessed correctly on 45% of the decisions but to be up 15 units because you cancelled your Labouchere three times!! And all you have to do achieve this is to play a shoe that is somewhat evenly distributed. My experience tells me that the “somewhat evenly distributed shoe” is always right around the corner.
