I thought I'd begin a thread design for the entry-level gambler looking for a system to play. You will not find any systems in this thread only basic information. You will also not find the rules of play here. If you will check other threads within this blog, I have recommended some books for the beginner (and intermediate) player.
BS v MM
I think a good place to start is the distinction between bet selection and money management. Simply put, Bet Selection systems (BS) tell the player where to place the next bet (like on red, or player, or passline for example). Money Management (MM) systems tell the player how much to bet on the next decision.
Most systems are mathematical templates that tell the player when to bet, where to bet and how much to bet. Typically systems are designed for Even Chance or 50/50 decisions (EC).
The House Edge
It should come as no surprise that ALL Casino games have a built in house edge. This is the amount of money one can expect to lose by playing the game. The edge is determined by the difference between the true odds and the payout. A simple example is playing one number straight up in roulette. If you place one unit on the 17 and the 17 hits, you are paid 35 to 1. You receive 36 units (comprised of your original bet and 35 of the house's chips, now might be a good time to stop playing). Because there are 38 numbers on an American roulette wheel, you have a one in 38 chance of winning a bet that pays 35 to 1. If true odds were paid, you would be paid 37 house units instead of 35. The house edge changes from game to game, but this simple illustration would be true for every single bet you can place in the casino. Some people win, some people lose but the casino ALWAYS wins, just look at the casino and this fact should be plainly evident.
MATH and TESTING
It is widely claimed and typically accepted that math proves that systems do not work. It seems that with thorough testing, all that one can hope for is to break even (or more accurately, to break even less the house edge).
There are system testers available for system's players to test their theories against actual casino results. (see another thread in this blog for links to purchase testers). The idea behind testing is that if your system can beat the testers, then it should perform strongly under real circumstances. It should seem obvious that if you can not beat the testers, you system has a good chance of failing in the casino.
Is there hope? If math brings you to the conclusion that systems will not win and the testers are nearly impossible to beat, is there hope for developing a successful strategy? Many successful players claim that some systems perform reliably in the short run and the key to winning in the long run is changing systems to respond to the game as you play it. Testing several systems which are triggered by (sometimes) subtle changes in the game is a very difficult task. Therefore, it is plausible that a successful systems player could win in the long term by making changes that would not be easily duplicated in the tester books (like leaving the table in search of a more lively one for example).
LONG RUN v. SHORT RUN
It is important to understand that series of random events tend to perform in accordance with their expected mathematical probabilities in the long run BUT rarely do in the short run. If an event has a near 50% likelihood of occurring (like the "player" winning a hand at baccarat for example), then if you looked at a large sample (like 1,000 decisions) you would probably find the even occurs very close to 50% of the time. This can be relied upon in the long run. However, it might be unwise to bet in anticipation of a 50% occurrence in the short run (like the next 6 decisions for example).
There is another concept to throw into the mix. That is the "standard deviation", but for this "beginner level" primer, I do not think it is necessary to go into how it works, Just be aware that when looking at a set of decisions, they can be expected to perform "close to" their expectation and there is a mathematical way to determine how "close to" the expectation would be normal (or at what point the numbers would be abnormal) and this is called the standard deviation.
OTHER ABBREVIATIONS
FTL = Follow The Last. This is a bet selection system that simply means your next bet is that the last decision will repeat. If red hits on roulette, your next bet is on red.
OLD = Opposite Last Decision. This of course is the opposite of FTL, if red hits on Roulette, your next bet should be black.
DBL = Decision Before Last. Here you would bet the same as the decision before the last decision. This simple Bet Selection system has the benefit of breaking up streaks that could work against you. (I'll try to come back and present an example of this here later.)
more later . . .
